My previous piece on this platform looked at Perth Glory’s attacking issues following the home loss to Adelaide United. Problems that were then reinforced by back-to-back defeats that followed the same familiar script: an inability to break down a low block.
I concluded by arguing that:
Meaningful progression is essential, not just to fix a blunt attack, but to establish a balanced, sustainable game model capable of giving Perth Glory a genuine chance of playing finals football.
Fast forward just over a month, and it’s fair to say the Glory’s attacking output has been inconsistent at best. Speaking ahead of the upcoming Auckland fixture at HBF Park, head coach Adam Griffiths remarked that “we’re going to have to be at our best in terms of those clinical moments this week more than ever.”
In isolation, that’s a reasonable point. Perth Glory are not converting chances at the same rate as other teams competing for top-six positions.
But this framing risks missing the bigger issue. The defining attacking problem of Griffiths’ tenure so far hasn’t been finishing per se; it’s been the attack as a complete process. Ironically, the Glory’s conversion rate this season hasn’t been disastrous; FotMob has it at 9.3%, a clear improvement on last season’s 7.2%. That alone suggests finishing is not the primary fault line.
Instead, the focus needs to shift toward how chances are created, and crucially, how often. On our most recent episode of the TFP Podcast, I described the Glory’s attacking profile as fragile, a view strongly supported by the underlying data.
For much of the season, Perth Glory have sat firmly in the league’s “Weak Attack” quadrant. That assessment holds whether you examine non-penalty xG created, xG per shot, crossing productivity, or their ability to consistently move the ball into dangerous areas via expected threat (xT). Across multiple metrics, the same picture emerges.
The data has also been remarkably consistent over time. Suppose we looked at the Glory’s rolling xG — a type of graph familiar to anyone who follows Premier League analytics — Perth Glory’s output follows a distinct zig-zag pattern: a reasonable attacking performance one week, followed by a near-total collapse the next. That volatility points to an attack that lacks repeatable mechanisms.
As a result, the Glory’s forwards are operating within a low-volume, unsustainable attacking model. When Perth Glory do score, it’s often via direct or transitional moments. It may be through Matt Sutton going long, the midfielders winning second balls, or the attacker capitalising on broken play. These moments can produce goals, but they are not a reliable foundation for sustained success.
This context is particularly relevant heading into the Auckland match. As Griffiths acknowledged, Steve Corica’s side concede very few shots per game. That doesn’t mean they’re impenetrable, however. Auckland allow a relatively high xG per shot, meaning when the opposition do create chances, they tend to be high quality. This is reflected in Auckland ranking fourth-highest for goals conceded per shot and third-highest per shot on target.
The problem for the Glory, however, is obvious: they haven’t been generating enough of those high-quality opportunities.
Consider the most common front four in recent weeks: Adam Taggart, Tom Lawrence, Trent Ostler and Nicholas Pennington. Taggart and Lawrence are averaging just over one shot on target per game, while Ostler and Pennington are below one. In terms of npxG per game, Taggart, Lawrence and Pennington hover around 0.30, while Ostler sits at just 0.05.
Put simply, Perth Glory’s forwards are feeding off poor-quality supply. The issue heading into the Auckland fixture, then, is less about “clinical moments” and more about generating better ones in the first place.
Ultimately, the Glory’s attacking struggles are not primarily dictated by personnel: while that remains a valid discussion, it’s not the central one. The core problem is a low-volume, reactive attacking approach that persists even when accounting for squad constraints. If Perth Glory are to have any realistic chance of beating the league leaders and mounting a late push for the top six, they must find ways to consistently generate more chances and, just as importantly, better ones.
All images courtesy of Tom McCarthy.
